MotoGP – Marquez 2016 MotoGP world champion? Statistically, it’s done! –

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Marquez 2016 MotoGP World Champion? Statistically, it’s done !

MotoGP - Marquez 2016 MotoGP world champion? Statistically, it's done! -

Marc Marquez is calmly approaching the resumption of Moto GP hostilities on his Honda this weekend in Austria, with a 48-point lead over Lorenzo and 59 over Rossi at mid-season. And if we go by the history of the Grand Prix and the statistics, its gap taken on its rivals Yamaha will be extremely difficult to close….

Marc Marquez is calmly approaching the resumption of Moto GP hostilities on his Honda, with a 48-point lead over Lorenzo and 59 over Rossi at mid-season. And if we go by the history of the Grand Prix and the statistics, his gap over his rivals Yamaha will be extremely difficult to close….

If Lorenzo wins until Valence in front of Marquez, the n ° 93 is titled !

Thanks to his eight podiums, including, Marquez is leading the 2016 MotoGP World Championship with almost two victories ahead of his closest rival, Jorge Lorenzo (170 points against 122).

Mathematically, the games are not made … but not far: there are nine races to go, or 225 points to distribute (25 per victory). If Lorenzo won them all – which is not obvious, especially this weekend on the – he would reach a score of 347 points. 

Marquez should score a minimum of 178 points to win with 348 points. For this, finishing second in each race would be enough for him since he would then score 180 points (a second place brings 20 points)! There again, the task would not be easy, but this demonstration illustrates well the advantage of the n ° 93 at mid-season..

Besides his obvious talent, the reason for such an advance at this stage of the season is due to the impressive consistency shown by the quadruple Spanish world champion (once in 125 cc and in Moto2, then twice in MotoGP), to whom the podium has escaped only once in (13th following a fall).

This consistency at the forefront is precisely what is lacking in its main competitors, who have in turn self-eliminated by committing more and more serious mistakes in the provisional. The Ducati officials thus put themselves offside by making a series of errors: no less than seven crashes and one engine failure () in nine races for the two Andrea…

Although much less catastrophic, the observation is similar at Yamaha: Lorenzo has two white results (and, well helped by Iannone) as well as two failed races in (10th) and (15th) because of his problematic apprehension on a wet track..

As for Valentino Rossi, his astonishing inconstancy (falls in and out) due to his feverishness and his poor strategy in (8th after a tire change too late) cost him dearly at the time of reckoning. A shame in that it had never been so fast and catchy since its return to Yamaha in 2013…

Add to that his unfortunate and wounding mechanical breakage in front of his own and here is the Doctor relegated to almost 60 points of Marquez, who weaves himself nicely but surely his costume of very likely world champion 2016…

A fantastic comeback? Only two precedents in 14 years !

If we trust the statistics, Marc Marquez therefore has very little risk of being overtaken by his rivals: since the advent of 4-stroke MotoGP in 2002, the rider leading at mid-season has almost always wearing the crown in Valencia (Spain).

The two exceptions to this "rule" date back to, when Pedrosa was leading at the halfway point with a 4 point lead over Rossi. "Pedro" finally finished in third place, far behind Rossi and Stoner, penalized by serious injuries sustained by falling (especially in, during the recovery after the summer break, precisely!).

The second year in which the leader at mid-season did not win the title is 2015, when Lorenzo dislodged Rossi from first place in the standings at the last minute, taking advantage of the obligation to start from the last place awarded. to his teammate in sanction for his controversial action on Marquez in .

In addition, our colleagues have observed that since the implementation of the current scale of allocation of points in 1993, no driver has ever made up such a delay taken on the leader during the first part of the season.. 

The best return ever recorded is to be credited to Marc Marquez, precisely, when he had filled in the gap of 30 points separating him from Dani Pedrosa, then at the head of the championship. Just behind, Lorenzo did almost as well last year by taking back from Rossi the trifle of 29 points, tied with Mick Doohan in 1995 (29 points behind Daryl Beattie).

Mark well started … but not yet arrived !

In short, from a statistical point of view, the case is folded: with his 48 lengths ahead, Marc Marquez is in theory out of reach. But all these clever calculations are one thing … and the reality of the track is another: no one is safe from a tumble, both literally and figuratively, as the Honda official regularly reminds us. by evoking his two consecutive falls in 2014 to then to .

All the more so as 2016 is a very special season, due to technical innovations such as the introduction of Michelin tires and unique software which is significantly changing habits. So far, Marquez is the pilot who has shown himself the most skilful to thwart the inevitable traps set by the discovery of this new equipment..

But the wheel can turn quickly, in MotoGP maybe even faster than elsewhere! Not to mention that several drivers can slow down, or even compromise obtaining the Marquez title by beating him every weekend: Lorenzo and Rossi of course, but also Pedrosa if he wakes up, or very talented outsiders like Iannone and Viñales . Which was far from the case during most of the seasons used to establish the above statistics … In short, a word of advice: stay connected ! 

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